By Cynthia Nelson
Over the past 10 years, attrition rates in the Foreign Service (FS) and Civil Service (CS) have remained relatively constant and below government-wide averages. Overall attrition rates have been less than 4 percent in the FS generalist cones, approximately 5 percent in the FS specialist skill groups, and about 8 percent or less in the CS. These attrition rates are lower than the 2014–2018 government-wide rates, which ranged from 12 to 15 percent and have been on the increase.
Figure 1:
Attrition can be categorized into two groups: retirements and non-retirements. Retirement separations can be further categorized as voluntary for FS and CS, and involuntary for the FS up-or-out system due to time-in-class, time-in-service, and age (65) restrictions. Non-retirement, often categorized as “other” separations include terminations, resignations, transfers out, and deaths.
This article will discuss attrition in these two major categories—retirements and non-retirements—for career, full-time permanent employees in FS and CS. Please note that non-career, part-time, or temporary employees such as students and interns will not be covered, because these categories are often appointed for limited terms.
Overall attrition remains steady. The FS generalist cones have varied by 1 percentage point, ranging from 3 to 4 percent. In the FS specialist occupations, attrition has varied from 4 to 6 percent. Attrition in CS is also higher than in FS, ranging from 6 to 8 percent.
Figure 2:
Foreign Service Generalists
Overall, FS generalist attrition was under 4 percent during the last 10 years. Retirements constituted most of the generalist separations. Overall generalist attrition rates were generally between 3 and 4 percent, with the retirement rates varying between 2 and 3 percent and other separations wavering around 1 percent.
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
In the Senior Foreign Service (SFS), attrition rates varied from 9 to 12 percent over the 10-year period, with retirements constituting most of the separations. Other separations include resignations of career SFS officers from other agencies, resignations and terminations of career officers who returned after retirement for special assignments, and deaths. At the mid-level, overall attrition rates ranged from 2 to 4 percent. As in the SFS, most of the separations at the mid-level were retirements, with retirement rates of 2 to 3 percent and other separation rates of about 1 percent. At the entry-level, nearly all separations were non-retirements, ranging from 1 and 2 percent per year. Attrition rates by year, separation category, and grade group are detailed below in Table 1.
Table 1: Foreign Service Generalists Attrition Rates
| Fiscal Year | SFS | Mid-level | Entry-Level | Total | ||||||||
| Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | |
| 2010 | 9.96% | 0.13% | 10.09% | 2.33% | 1.00% | 3.30% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 0.83% | 3.34% |
| 2011 | 11.52% | 0.40% | 11.92% | 2.98% | 0.40% | 3.38% | 0.00% | 1.56% | 1.56% | 2.89% | 0.80% | 3.69% |
| 2012 | 10.85% | 0.66% | 11.51% | 2.89% | 0.65% | 3.54% | 0.08% | 1.58% | 1.65% | 2.74% | 0.98% | 3.71% |
| 2013 | 8.48% | 1.08% | 9.56% | 2.72% | 0.76% | 3.49% | 0.11% | 1.78% | 1.90% | 2.37% | 1.16% | 3.53% |
| 2014 | 9.72% | 0.38% | 10.10% | 2.16% | 0.82% | 2.97% | 0.20% | 1.50% | 1.69% | 2.29% | 1.00% | 3.30% |
| 2015 | 10.02% | 0.97% | 10.99% | 2.31% | 0.98% | 3.28% | 0.24% | 2.11% | 2.35% | 2.47% | 1.35% | 3.82% |
| 2016 | 10.16% | 0.48% | 10.63% | 1.97% | 0.71% | 2.68% | 0.13% | 1.85% | 1.98% | 2.31% | 1.04% | 3.34% |
| 2017 | 11.84% | 0.48% | 12.32% | 1.83% | 0.99% | 2.82% | 0.18% | 1.34% | 1.52% | 2.45% | 1.04% | 3.48% |
| 2018 | 10.50% | 0.24% | 10.74% | 1.94% | 0.92% | 2.86% | 0.19% | 1.84% | 2.04% | 2.39% | 1.10% | 3.49% |
| 2019 | 11.73% | 0.26% | 11.99% | 2.30% | 0.91% | 3.21% | 0.16% | 1.37% | 1.53% | 2.74% | 0.96% | 3.70% |
Note: Includes Career Full-time Permanent employees only.
*Other includes non-retirement separations (e.g., terminations, resignations, and deaths.)
Foreign Service Specialists
Attrition in the FS specialist skill groups has averaged about 5 percent over the last 10 years. As with the FS generalists, retirements constituted most of the separations. Overall attrition rates were between 4 and 6 percent, with the retirement rates hovering around 3 and 4 percent, and other separation rates fluctuating between 1 and 2 percent.
Figure 5:
About half of the fiscal year (FY) 19 increase in specialist attrition came from a surge of security officer retirements. The regional security officer attrition rate rose from 4.1 percent in FY18 to 5.6 percent in FY19—a 34 percent increase. The career regional security officer population tripled over the past 20 years, and these officers are now becoming eligible for retirement. The retirement eligible rate for regional security officers is 11 percent—a level not seen since the beginning of the hiring wave in 1997 through 2001.
Attrition rates in the FS specialist skill groups are displayed by SFS (MC and OC) and non-SFS (FS01 and below). In the SFS, specialist attrition rates varied from 8 to 20 percent over the 10-year period, with retirements constituting most of the separations. Other specialist separations included terminations, conversions into CS, separations of career officers who returned from special assignments and then retired, and deaths. It is important to note that because the number of specialists in the SFS is small, a difference of one separation may greatly increase the attrition rate. For this reason, separation rates for SFS specialists will fluctuate more than it will for generalists from year-to-year.
Figure 6:
The attrition rates for FS specialists at the FS01 and below vary by about 2 percentage points over the same 10-year period. As in the SFS, most of the separations were due to retirements, with retirement rates of about 3 percent each year, while other separation rates wavered between 1 and 2 percent per year. Attrition rates by year, separation category, and SFS/non-SFS are detailed below in Table 2.
Table 2: Foreign Service Specialists Attrition Rates
| Fiscal Year | SFS | Non-SFS | Total | ||||||
| Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | |
| 2010 | 10.29% | 0.00% | 10.29% | 2.62% | 1.85% | 4.46% | 2.82% | 1.80% | 4.62% |
| 2011 | 7.41% | 0.74% | 8.15% | 3.31% | 1.33% | 4.64% | 3.41% | 1.32% | 4.73% |
| 2012 | 18.79% | 0.67% | 19.46% | 2.73% | 1.56% | 4.29% | 3.17% | 1.54% | 4.71% |
| 2013 | 7.75% | 0.00% | 7.75% | 3.06% | 1.43% | 4.49% | 3.18% | 1.39% | 4.57% |
| 2014 | 15.58% | 0.00% | 15.58% | 2.86% | 1.50% | 4.36% | 3.21% | 1.45% | 4.67% |
| 2015 | 16.67% | 1.28% | 17.95% | 2.79% | 1.67% | 4.46% | 3.17% | 1.66% | 4.83% |
| 2016 | 15.33% | 2.67% | 18.00% | 2.86% | 1.81% | 4.67% | 3.20% | 1.83% | 5.03% |
| 2017 | 15.44% | 0.67% | 16.11% | 2.95% | 1.72% | 4.67% | 3.29% | 1.69% | 4.97% |
| 2018 | 15.97% | 0.00% | 15.97% | 3.10% | 1.75% | 4.85% | 3.44% | 1.70% | 5.14% |
| 2019 | 15.44% | 0.67% | 16.11% | 3.92% | 2.14% | 6.06% | 4.24% | 2.10% | 6.34% |
Note: Includes Career Full-time Permanent employees only.
*Other includes non-retirement separations (e.g., terminations, resignations, and death).
Civil Service
Attrition in CS has fluctuated by 2 percentage points during the past 10-year period. With the exception of the Senior Executive Service (SES), where retirement was the principal driver of separation, the CS attrition patterns differ from those in FS in that non-retirements constituted most of the separations. Other separations fluctuated between 3 and 5 percent and retirements varied between 2 and 4 percent.
Figure 7:
CS attrition rates over the last 10 years are presented by SES, mid-grades (GS 15–GS 12), and lower grades (GS11 and below). SES attrition rates varied from 7 to 11 percent over the 10-year period, with retirements generally constituting most of the separations. The other separations included terminations, resignations, and deaths. It is important to note that because the number of employees in the SES is small, a difference of one separation may greatly impact the SES attrition rate, resulting in fluctuations from year-to-year.
Figure 8:
The CS attrition patterns at the mid- and lower-levels for CS are more stable, varying from 6 to 9 percent in the mid-grades and from 5 to 9 percent in the lower grades. Non-SES attrition was comprised primarily of non-retirement, or “other” separations. In the mid-grades, other separations ranged from 3 to 5 percent and retirements varied from 2 to 4 percent over the last 10 years. In the lower grades, other separations varied from 4 to 6 percent and retirements ranged from 2 to 3 percent. Attrition rates by year, separation category, and grade group are detailed below in Table 3.
Table 3: Civil Service Attrition Rates
| Fiscal Year | SES | GS-15 – GS-12 | GS-11 and Below | Total | ||||||||
| Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | Retirement | Other* | Total | |
| 2010 | 3.01% | 6.77% | 9.77% | 2.56% | 3.74% | 6.30% | 1.62% | 4.37% | 5.99% | 2.20% | 4.02% | 6.24% |
| 2011 | 6.38% | 2.13% | 8.51% | 2.84% | 4.26% | 7.10% | 2.40% | 5.30% | 7.71% | 2.74% | 4.60% | 7.34% |
| 2012 | 7.38% | 3.36% | 10.74% | 2.95% | 3.44% | 6.39% | 1.94% | 3.90% | 5.84% | 2.66% | 3.60% | 6.26% |
| 2013 | 6.71% | 4.03% | 10.74% | 2.48% | 3.44% | 5.92% | 2.00% | 4.64% | 6.65% | 2.39% | 3.84% | 6.23% |
| 2014 | 6.37% | 3.82% | 10.19% | 2.89% | 3.88% | 6.77% | 3.04% | 5.56% | 8.60% | 2.99% | 4.38% | 7.38% |
| 2015 | 6.54% | 3.92% | 10.46% | 3.09% | 5.17% | 8.27% | 2.91% | 5.06% | 7.97% | 3.10% | 5.12% | 8.22% |
| 2016 | 5.00% | 2.50% | 7.50% | 2.36% | 4.78% | 7.14% | 2.90% | 5.81% | 8.71% | 2.55% | 5.03% | 7.58% |
| 2017 | 8.72% | 2.33% | 11.05% | 2.53% | 4.46% | 6.99% | 1.78% | 6.09% | 7.87% | 2.43% | 4.86% | 7.29% |
| 2018 | 7.88% | 10.30% | 10.30% | 3.11% | 4.90% | 8.00% | 2.82% | 4.62% | 7.44% | 3.11% | 4.78% | 7.90% |
| 2019 | 8.92% | 10.83% | 10.83% | 3.31% | 5.02% | 8.33% | 2.64% | 4.94% | 7.59% | 3.24% | 4.95% | 8.19% |
*Other includes terminations, resignations, and death.
Conclusion
Attrition rates for both FS and CS are below federal averages and were consistent over the past 10 years with some slight upward trend which mirrors federal, state, and local government trends. The FS attrition rates are expected to increase in the coming years, as FS members from past hiring surges become eligible to retire. Current and projected attrition are key components of the Department of State’s workforce planning system. The Bureau of Global Talent Management, in concert with bureau managers, regularly monitors attrition in all occupational categories to discern changes or potential challenges that should be addressed. Attrition rates are reported annually to the public in the Department’s Five-Year Workforce Plan.
Cynthia Nelson is a management analyst in the Bureau of Global Talent Managements’ Office of Organization and Talent Analytics.